The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, has long been a cornerstone of water-sharing diplomacy between India and Pakistan. Brokered by the World Bank, the treaty allocates the waters of the Indus River system, with Pakistan receiving control over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) which accounts for the majority (80%) of the water flow and India over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). Despite the tumultuous history of the two nations, the treaty has endured as a symbol of cooperation. However, the recent Pahalgam terrorist attack has cast a shadow over this agreement, raising questions about its future.

The Pahalgam Attack: A Catalyst for Change

On April 22, 2025, a devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, claimed the lives of 26 individuals, including tourists and locals. The attack, attributed to Pakistan-based terrorist groups, has reignited tensions between the two nations. In response, India announced the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, marking a significant departure from its previous stance of maintaining the treaty despite conflicts.

The decision to suspend the treaty was made during a high-level Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The government cited Pakistan's continued support for cross-border terrorism as a breach of the treaty's terms, which require both parties to act in good faith. This move has been described as a strategic shift, leveraging water as a tool of diplomacy and pressure.

Implications for Pakistan

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty poses significant challenges for Pakistan. The Indus River system is a lifeline for the country, supporting agriculture, drinking water, and industry. Approximately 80% of Pakistan's water resources come from the western rivers allocated under the treaty. The disruption of water flow could lead to severe agricultural crises, economic instability, and social unrest, particularly in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh, which rely heavily on these waters.

Pakistan has labeled India's decision an "act of war," escalating tensions further. The country has warned that any attempt to divert water meant for Pakistan would be met with strong retaliation. This rhetoric underscores the high stakes involved in the suspension of the treaty.

India's Perspective

For India, the suspension of the treaty is a statement of resolve against terrorism. By holding Pakistan accountable for its actions, India aims to send a clear message that cross-border terrorism will not be tolerated. The move also reflects a broader strategy to use all available means, including water resources, to counteract threats to national security.

Critics, however, argue that the suspension could backfire, leading to increased hostilities and undermining India's position as a responsible global actor. The decision also raises questions about the long-term viability of using water as a tool of diplomacy.

The Future of the Indus Water Treaty

The Pahalgam attack has brought the Indus Water Treaty to a crossroads. The treaty, which has survived wars and political upheavals, now faces its most significant challenge. The suspension raises critical questions: Can the treaty be revived as a symbol of cooperation, or will it become a casualty of escalating tensions?

The international community has a role to play in mediating this crisis. The World Bank, as a guarantor of the treaty, may need to step in to facilitate dialogue between the two nations. However, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty, as both India and Pakistan grapple with the implications of their actions.

Conclusion:

The Pahalgam attack has underscored the intricate interplay between water diplomacy and national security. The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty marks a turning point in India-Pakistan relations, with far-reaching implications for both nations. As the world watches, the future of the treaty—and the broader dynamics of South Asia—hangs in the balance. Whether this moment leads to renewed cooperation or further conflict remains to be seen, but its significance cannot be overstated.

-Team Yuva Aaveg

Praveen Kumar Maurya

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